Posted by
Mr Boss on Friday, October 02, 2009 4:18:51 PM
The American economy shed another 263,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, reinforcing a broad assumption that many more months of lean times lie ahead for working people.
The latest snapshot of the nation&S217;s job market released by the Labor Department on Friday amplified the notion that the recession has probably ended, as a technical matter. Though the job market continued to worsen, the pace of deterioration remained markedly slower than earlier in the year, when roughly 700,000 jobs a month were disappearing.
Yet the report added to the sentiment that the economic expansion, which is probably under way, will be weak and tentative, with scarce paychecks and anxiety remaining prominent features of American life well into next year.
&S220;This is a weak report,&S221; said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. &S220;The rate of job loss has tapered off, but we still haven&S217;t reached the point where businesses are willing to hire.&S221;
The continuing hard times in the job market seem likely to increase pressure on the Obama administration and Congress to consider another dose of federal stimulus spending, even as the government grapples with deficits projected by some economists to exceed $10 trillion over the next decade.
Capturing particular notice was a preliminary revision to the assumptions that the Labor Department used in a survey of private employers. The department disclosed that, in March 2009, the economy held 824,000 fewer jobs than it previously believed, making an already bleak picture worse.
For millions of unemployed people, the change merely confirmed something many have come to grasp intimately, through the discouraging process of seeking work.
&S220;There&S217;s nothing out there,&S221; said Jerry Lamirande, a technology systems engineer in Amarillo, Tex., who has been out of work since April 2008.
During the technology boom of the late 1990s, Mr. Lamirande, now 62, worked for I.B.M. and made about $130,000 a year. After a layoff seven years ago, he has been paid about $70,000 a year as a consultant working under temporary contracts.
Since his last job, he and his wife have lived on her salary as a public school teacher and on hardship withdrawals from his retirement account. He has searched nationwide for his next contract, willing to relocate for work.
&S220;I have no choice,&S221; he said. &S220;I&S217;ve got to go where the opportunities are. The problem is, there aren&S217;t many opportunities.&S221;
With each passing month, he worries that he is slipping from even being qualified for meager openings that now attract 14 and 15 applicants each.
&S220;You&S217;ve got new technology that you&S217;re not learning about,&S221; he said. &S220;The longer you&S217;re out, the worse it gets.&S221;
The latest report lent further credence to the sense that opportunities were indeed diminishing, and in nearly every field. The unemployment rate continued to inch toward double digits, a level last seen in June 1983. The so-called underemployment rate (which adds in people whose hours have cut and those working part time for lack of full-time positions) reached 17 percent, its highest point since the government began tracking such data in 1994.
Health care remained a rare bright spot, adding 19,000 jobs in September, but construction jobs slipped by 64,000, manufacturing declined by 51,000 and retail lost another 39,000 jobs. Government jobs slipped by 53,000, in what experts viewed as an ominous sign of worsening state and local coffers.
&S220;That&S217;s the budget crunch hitting,&S221; said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. &S220;We&S217;re still losing jobs at a very rapid pace. We&S217;re still looking at an economy with a lot of weakness.&S221;
Most economists &<51; Mr cash advance no faxing. Baker included &<51; assume the economy expanded at an annual pace of about 3 percent from July to September. But debate focuses on the vigor and staying power of the recovery.
More optimistic views anticipate a robust bounce-back from what now stands as the longest, deepest recession since the Great Depression. But most economists expect a sustained slog through stubbornly high rates of joblessness &<51; a situation that seemed more probable after Friday&S217;s report.
The expected growth in recent months is largely the result of businesses cutting inventories at a slower pace after the panic that accompanied the financial crisis. As some enterprises &<51; particularly factories in the Midwest &<51; begin to rebuild stocks, the impacts could wash through the economy for another few months, adding jobs and moderating the overall decline.
After that, however, the underlying weakness of the economy will probably reassert itself, experts say. After many years of borrowing against homes and cashing in stock portfolios to spend in excess of incomes, many Americans are tapped out. With the era of easy money seemingly over, austerity and saving have replaced spending and investment in millions of households, putting the brakes on overall economic activity.
&S220;There&S217;s basically zero evidence in this report for the story of a robust recovery,&S221; Mr. Hoffman said.
As many Americans transition from living on home equity loans to sustaining themselves on paychecks, weekly pay continues to effectively shrink: Over the last year, average hourly earnings for rank-and-file workers &<51; some 80 percent of the labor force &<51; have increased 2.5 percent. But average hourly earnings have expanded by only 0.7 percent, less than the increase in the cost of living, because so many employers have slashed working hours.
That trend held in September, with the average workweek edging down by a tenth of an hour, to 33 hours.
For those out of work, the job market looks harsher now that any point in the recession. The number of people who have been jobless for more than six months increased by 450,000 in September, reaching 5.4 million.
&S220;We have a truly massive crisis of long-term unemployment,&S221; said Christine Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project in a statement, adding that nearly 400,000 jobless people had exhausted their unemployment benefits by the end of September. &S220;Today&S217;s employment report is a marching order for Congress to pass unemployment benefit extensions to all states, quickly.&S221;
The first signs of improvement will probably be seen among temporary workers, say experts, as companies that have been hunkering down in the face of uncertain prospects take tentative measures to expand.
But temporary help services lost another 1,700 jobs in September, according to the report. Many employers are still waiting for firm evidence of growth before adding to their payrolls.
&S220;Companies are extremely cautious,&S221; said Roy Krause, chief executive of Speherion, a recruiting and staffing company based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. &S220;This recession was so painful that many companies are not anxious to take on more costs.&S221;
All of which translates into continued apprehension in many households.
In Elizabeth, N.J., Stephanie Wheeler, 56, has drained her savings down to $800 in the year since she lost her job at a data processing company.
&S220;It&S217;s terrifying,&S221; she said. &S220;I have an apartment. I&S217;ve been here for eight years. I don&S217;t know what&S217;s going to happen. I&S217;m petrified of being set out on the street.&S221;
Jack Healy contributed reporting.
Jobs Report Highlights Uncertainty of U.S. Recovery